According to a survey, adiq Khan sits at a minus 24 rating in densely populated suburban areas as he prepares for the rollout of ulez in Greater London.
The YouGov poll of 1,000 Londoners found that across the capital the Labor mayor is rated 52 per cent negative and 40 per cent positive – giving an overall net positivity rating of minus 12.
Mr Khan is significantly more popular in the labour-oriented inner cities of London – 13 boroughs plus City – where the ultra-low-emission zone has been in force since 2019. There it enjoys a net favorable rating of plus five.
But in the outlying 19 counties, its net rating drops to minus 24. There, car use is much higher, and many more motorists will be affected as the ulez expands beyond the north and south county roads.
The results, shared exclusively with the Evening Standard, are available just a week before the expansion's release.
60 percent of the 8.8 million inhabitants of Greater London live in the outskirts. As of December last year, they had 3.7 million registered voters, compared to 2.3 million downtown.
Mr Khan rejected a Supreme Court action against the expansion of Ulez by four of the outskirts and Surrey County Council. The plan remains controversial as vandals target hundreds of cameras.
The Mayor insists this is necessary to clean up toxic air and protect the health of another five million Londoners across the zone, and is increasing financial support for drivers scrapping non-compliant vehicles.
However, YouGov also said that Khan's Tory rival Susan Hall remains an “unknown figure” to most Londoners ahead of next May's mayoral election.
The London Assemblyman, who was selected as the Conservative candidate last month, is trying to exploit anti-Ulez sentiment among suburban voters after the party surprisingly stuck by Boris Johnson's old constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in a by-election.
Ms Hall fares better across London with a net margin of plus one (22 per cent positive versus 21 per cent unfavorable). In central London it is minus six, in the suburbs plus four.
But 57 per cent of the YouGov poll also said they “know nothing about the Tory candidate”, versus just 9 per cent for Mr Khan, suggesting his profile is much higher. “Susan Hall remains an unknown figure to most Londoners, with 57 percent having no opinion of her,” Lukas Paleckis, senior policy researcher at YouGov, told the Evening Standard. “It goes without saying that the Conservatives will need to pull off something big to reverse this mood in the capital, but with the Ulez expansion causing a stir it could create scope for public opinion to swing in their favour changes,” he said.
The results are in line with previous polls and the results of the Covid-postponed 2021 election, which showed Mr Khan lagging behind in some outskirts.
Croydon and Harrow went Conservative in last year's local elections, joining Hillingdon, Bromley and Bexley under Tory control. Labor first gained control of Barnet City Council where local Tory MPs Theresa Villiers, Matthew Offord and Mike Freer have campaigned against Ulez expansion. In April, YouGov found that significantly more voters outside of London than inner-city voters thought the mayor was doing poorly in office (55 percent versus 41). Since 2021, the gap has widened.
A daily fee of £12.50 will be charged for non-compliant vehicles entering the extended Ulez zone. However, Surrey, Kent and Hertfordshire Borough Councils have all refused to allow Transport for London to put up signs to warn motorists that they are approaching the new area. Mr Khan fears some motorists may accidentally stumble upon it and is urging those councils to rethink.
Nationally, both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are viewed negatively by most voters, according to YouGov. But the Prime Minister's net likeability among Londoners was much worse at minus 38, compared with minus four for the Labor leader, who has effectively rejected the enlarged ulez. The numbers point to a strong Labor party in the capital for the next general election.
